18 likely to be the Magic Number, and Bath won’t reach it

20 into 8 won’t go, and this weekend the pool of potential qualifiers will grow even smaller. There has been some consternation on Twitter and assuredly there will be more should Leinster take a thumping on Saturday, about the fact that Leinster have started 7 new faces for their round 5 clash against Bath. Disregarding the argument that the team Leo Cullen has selected is one that can genuinely win (which I happen to believe they absolutely can), let’s have a look at the pools and see who are the likely winners of each pool and the likely 3 best runners up.

Pool 1.

 

All that is to be decided here is who will win and who will come second. Toulouse are out, a maximum 10 points from their games at Oyonnax and home against Saracens will give them 15 points. That will not be enough to progress. Sarries are through if they get one point from Ulster or Toulouse, and are probably through regardless. Ulster could do with a 5 at home against Oyonnax and a point against Sarries but 18 should be enough to see them through.

Sarries Ulster

Prediction – Saracens 27 points, Ulster 19 points, Toulouse 10, Oyonnax 2 – 2 qualifiers.

 

POOL 2

 

There are three teams very much in the shake up here and Bordeaux Begles might still take points of some of the front runners. Clermont top the pool by 2 points (on 14)  from Ospreys who are 2 points ahead of Exeter. Ospreys welcome Clermont to Swansea and then have to go to Sandy Park, while Exeter travel to Bordeaux before entertaining to the Ospreys. Clermont finish with a potentially tricky game against Bordeaux at home and so  will look to have qualification virtually wrapped up tonight. 5 points against Ospreys will bring them to 19 and almost certainly put them through. If Ospreys can nick a point tonight at home, they will be well poised to set up a do or die clash against Exeter next weekend.

Exeter v Os

Exeter need to win against Bordeaux (with a slightly weakened team in France), and then beat Ospreys in Swansea to get them to 18  (or an unlikely maximum of 20) to get them into the quarter finals.) I would back Exeter’s pack to do the job on Ospreys (unfortunately) though they are risking a lot by weakening their team to go to Bordeaux, as Ulster nearly found out in Oyonnax last weekend. I would expect them to finish second to Clermont (on 22 or 23 points).

 

Prediction – Clermont 23 points, Exeter 18 points, Ospreys 13, Bordeaux 7 – 1 qualifier

 

Pool 3

 

Racing need 2 points from their last two games at home against Scarlets and then in Scotstoun against Warriors to put them through. I fancy them to take all 5 from tonight’s game and give themselves a shot at the number 1 seed in the quarter finals next weekend. The crucial game in this pool comes this weekend at Franklin’s Gardens between Saints and Warriors. Anything but a Warriors win puts them out. Anything but a Saints win puts them out. This is a knockout game. This could well be a pool with one qualifier with Warriors winning tonight but being beaten at home by Racing next weekend. With their recent run of form, as well as their injury problems, I am not expecting that to happen.

Saints Warriors

Prediction – Racing 26 points, Saints 19 points, Warriors 10 points, Scarlets 2 points – 2 qualifiers

 

Pool 4

 

Like pool 1 – all that is to be decided is the positions of 1 and 2. Leicester should put 4 tries on Treviso and win that game all but confirming them as pool winners before their trip to Paris. Munster entertain Stade desperately needing a win to salvage morale but Stade have two tough games to try and get a win and a losing bonus point to get them to 19. I expect a backlash from Munster, but  without a scrum it’s hard to see them pulling this off this weekend. Stade have been very inconsistent this season, and terrible away from home. Last weekend was their best performance of their season – will that be a catalyst to kick start the year or will the inconsistency continue?

Munster v Stade

Prediction – Leicester 24 points, Stade 18 points, Munster 13 points, Treviso 0 points – 2 qualifiers.

 

Pool 5

 

In this pool, who knows really? Wasps are in pole position but travel to Mayol before welcoming a resurgent Leinster. Toulon have to go to the Rec after entertaining Bath. Bath play a youthful Leinster this weekend. With Leinster already out, it is likely that, insofar as possible, the side next weekend will also have a youthful complexion about it. I don’t see Bath scoring 4 tries against a side who has conceded just one in their last three games. Bath have also been in reasonably poor form until the Toulon game where they played dogged rugby and lost by three. Nothing short of 9 points will do it for Bath and I don’t see them bonus pointing either Leinster or Toulon in the next two weeks and so they are all but out. If Leinster can get some sort of hold in the scrum, and Tracy can keep the lineout ticking over, I actually think Leinster will put them out of their misery this weekend.

Pool 5

I do not see us winning in Coventry next week however, with Wasps battling for survival.

 

Prediction – Wasps 19 points, Toulon 17 points, Bath 13 points,  Leinster 5 points. 1 qualifier.

 

The key points will be whether Ulster can get a point in Allianz Park, 4 tries at home against the pool whipping boys is a must. Pools 2 and 5 are a guess at best. Hard to know how Exeter will do first with a weakened side this weekend and then at home against the Ospreys. Hard to know whether Toulon will be able to overcome Wasps after plodding away in this group so far with Wasps destroying them in the reverse fixture. In pool 3 a bonus point for Saints in both games is not out of the question and would make them very comfortable.  Stade against Munster is a very big game in the context of the quarter finals. A win for Munster would really put a cat amongst the pigeons.

 

I see it shaking up like so

 

1 Saracens

2 Racing

3 Leicester

4 Clermont

5 Wasps

6 Ulster

7 Saints

8 Stade
I started this article by saying Leinster versus Bath was not going to matter in terms of other teams making the quarter finals. I don’t think Bath will get the 9 points needed from their last 2 games to make it to 18, let alone the 10 points they would need to get to 19. It is a largely irrelevant fixture and one that makes perfect sense for Leinster to blood some youth. Particularly when 4 of those selected (Treacy, van der Flier, McGrath and Ringrose) would have a very strong case to be included in Leinster’s first 23, and possibly even first XV. If Bath come away from the RDS with a win I won’t be shocked, but I certainly don’t think they’ll thump us, and I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if we nicked a win.

European Rugby Chaos: Whats it all about?

Considering how important the situation regarding the unions and clubs currently under the ERC umbrella are, there is an awful lot of poor information spreading leading to people forming wrong opinions about who the good guys and who the bad guys in this scenario are. This post will attempt to clarify what exactly is going on in the world of rugby as we know it?

First things first is to clarify who actually are  involved. 

The Players

A lot of angst on comment threads and message boards I have read is being leveled at the RFU. This is largely a mistake people make when in fact they are referring to the position being postured by Premier League Rugby, namely the representative union for all the clubs playing in the Aviva Premiership. You have the ERC, the body which runs the Heineken and Amlin Challenge cups in their current formats, negotiating with sponsors on behalf of the unions of the participating nations. There is the IRFU, the Irish body representing its teams; Leinster, Ulster, Munster and Connacht. The WRU who represent Welsh rugby as a whole and who distribute funds to their independently owned regions, who are represented by Regional Rugby Wales (RRW). The Scottish and Italian involvement thus far has been negligible insofar as I have followed the discussion. Which leaves us with the French Union FFR and the representative body for the clubs the Ligue Nationale de Rugby (LNR.) The IRB even have an overarching inclusion in the situation while as of yet they have not been heavily involved. As you can see there are a lot of different parts here which is why discussions have been made so difficult. PLR meet with the RFU, who bring their position to ERC, or as in recent times the position has been to neglect to negotiate with ERC. LNR and RRW give their position to the FFR and WRU respectively, who also come to the ERC table and report back to those bodies. Now that we have the players more or less known, it’s time to look at the ongoing situation and where we have come from.

 

What’s the sitch?

In 2012 PLR and LNR signaled their intent that they would, following the 2013/2014 season, no longer participate in ERC run competitions. This was subject to their notice requirement under their contractual obligations to the ERC. Not a whole lot was done about this last season which has meant that their has been an awful lot of movement over the last 6 months. PLR and LNR had several primary grievances. They felt that the competition was not as strong as it should be due to the involvement of the weak Pro 12 sides. They felt also that it was unfair that their clubs had to qualify for the tournament whereas no such qualification system was in place in the Rabo where the top 3 Irish and Welsh, both Scottish and, perhaps most controversially, both Italian teams were included. Following Leinster and Munster’s recent success in the competition, this has also led to the inclusion of Connacht who would also be considered one of the weaker sides in the Pro12. Finally they felt that the amount of money ERC was raising through sponsorship of the competition did not match the massive potential the competition had. As such they were unhappy to allow the ERC to continue running it. 

BT Sport struck a deal with PLR to set up a new European competition. This deal meant that somewhere in the region of £130million would be given to this competition if PLR could create a competition with at least 4 or 5 of the 6 Nations participating. This was where the Rugby Champions Cup was born. The English quickly got the French on board, and without them all hope for the Heineken Cup seemed completely lost. The Welsh regions backed this competition too and at one point it seemed as if ERC was absolutely on it’s knees. Questions were asked about the legitimacy of such a tournament, that the IRB had not backed it and that it would not be able to proceed without such a backing. 

Then came the announcement by the ERC that they would submit to the first two of the above listed grievances of PLR and LNR. They agreed to cut the numbers in the competition for 24 to 20 and have a qualification system equally split of 6 from the Pro 12, 6 from the Aviva Premiership and 6 for the Top 14 with the remaining two made up of the winners of the Heineken and Amlin Challenge cups. 

This encouraged the FFR who offered their clubs €2million each to participate in the European cups for the following year. This was accepted somewhat by the French who referred to next season as a “transitional season” to give them enough time to organise a new structure for 2015/2016. They spoke of an organisation similar to that in football (presumably UEFA) which would be more inclusive of everybody. 

That was in essence a death bell for the possibility of a PLR run RRC next season. So the question was whether the English would be involved. That was answered last week in which it was confirmed that the English clubs were sticking to their guns and would not be playing under ERC next season. 

That’s as best a summary as I can put on the situation at the up to now, so now I would like to look at what next.

The Future

When I heard the French would be involved in the Heineken cup next year I rejoiced. I thought at last this mess was over, the English would come to their senses and join in, and the status quo would be restored. How very naive of me. The English sticking to their guns was a head spinner and has provoked much angst among rugby fans. I’ve read some articles from Irish, English and Welsh perspectives which has led me to the following conclusions about the situation in each individual country.

 

England

In an article in last Sunday’s Independent, Neil Francis pointed out that very few of the clubs in the Aviva Premiership were making a profit, that not participating in Europe was gambling on possible financial meltdown. He brazenly suggests that the RFU should buy out these clubs and have a system as we have in Ireland of central control and centrally contracting players. This has helped us avoid club/country conflicts and all in all has proven rather successful for the growth of the game here. However I think this position is nigh on impossible to achieve for the RFU. 100 million for 12 clubs plus their grounds, plus all then assuming those players wages, on the eve of hosting the Rugby World Cup is a nonsense idea. Firstly the valuation is insulting. Secondly, there is no talk of the championship sides, would they be left on their own as private organisations? Buying them out too and paying all these players would be a logistical and financial nightmare. It’s difficult enough for the IRFU to keep disputes in this country at bay between 4 provinces, triple that number is chaos. And it’s not as easy as extrapolating populations. 

However, not much heed should be paid to this suggestion as in all honesty I don’t think Francis was being serious. However what should be noticed is his proposition that English clubs are not profitable. Those without grounds are making big losses and those with grounds are making next to nothing. Is this not reason enough for the English to be displeased with ERC’s financial model, especially considering BT Sport offered them more without a tournament even taking shape? Only in my reflection on the issue in the last few days has this struck me and I felt an odd feeling for an Irishman. I felt sympathy for the English! If even the clubs participating in Europe are making losses, why not ask for more, especially when the likes of Zebre could lose 22 games in a season and still collect more from ERC than French and English clubs who had not qualified. It simply was a ludicrous position when you think about it. We’ll park this English part here and take it up again later.

Wales

Almost certainly the most complex situation in this story. The Dragons, the Blues, the Ospreys and the Scarlets are in disarray. An exodus of their stars has seen their sides shorn of, off the top of my head; George North, Jamie Roberts, Lee Byrne, Dwayne Peel, Dan Lydiate, Luke Charteris, James Hook and Mike Phillips. They look certain to be joined by Richard Hibbard, 6 Nations player of the Tournament and Lions Player of the Series Leigh Halfpenny, and possibly even Welsh and Lions Captain Sam Warburton. The money isn’t their for the regions to keep their stars. And why would they want to stay in Wales? The fans aren’t happy with the Region situation. The combined attendance for all four Welsh provinces barely eclipses that of Leinster. The Rabo is the weakest of the three leagues in Europe. The competition and the money and the atmosphere is all better elsewhere, so apart from regional pride, what’s stopping them? This has led RRW to look for more money from the WRU. More than the (roughly) £4million a year they currently receive. 

Following talks on the 11th of December, it would seem as if the WRU have flat out refused, held their position that there is no more money to give, and seem more interested in trying to keep Sam Warburton in Wales than keeping their regions in the Pro12. It is an utter mess. Currently it would seem that, should an offer from the PLR come in for the 4 teams to move to the English Premiership/Championship, that gave them more money than they got from the WRU, that they would take it. As the excellent Simon Thomas has consistently pointed out on his twitter, the regions view keeping this current system of £4million a year is viewed as a slow and painful death. The players would leave, fans would stop coming and the clubs would be destroyed. 

An interesting point that came out of this meeting was that the WRU were looking at the prospect of 3 new regions being set up in the event of the 4 current ones moving to the Aviva Premiership. This is ludicrous to me. How can a Union not afford more than £4 million per club, but would be able to afford setting up three new ones, signing players and all the cost that goes along with running a club. How can this union afford to refurbish the corporate box and the pitch at the Millenium Stadium, at an estimated total cost of £5million, yet not be able to trump up the money to keep the stars in Wales. I may be a tad presumptuous, but to me this is a clear play by the head of the WRU to try and make the situation as awful for the regions as possible, so they’re forced to give in and become Union controlled, as they are in Ireland. If the money is there to set the new regions up, it’s there to fund the ones the country currently has. The idea of 7 professional teams in a country as small as Wales is outrageous. Where are they going to find the quality players and coaches needed to compete at the highest level. It seems a completely ill thought out plan that does not seem to be serious.

France

While it would seem that the French teams with all their money would be the least concerned about the amount they receive from the ERC Brian Moore points out that it may not be their only grievance. From their statement it would seem their idea would be to demolish ERC and not to have a body working for the benefit of the unions but a body like UEFA who work for all concerned. He refers to the French playing European minnows many years ago as an indicator that the French are actually concerned with the lack of involvement of teams from countries like Spain, Georgia, Russia, Portugal and Romania where there is rugby but it is at a very poor standard. Now this to me seems like a slightly ambitious link to make, and I am unsure how concerned Jackie Lorenzetti and Mourad Boudjellal are with the welfare of these European minnows. If this is what they are truly after, and it is for the improvement of the world game, then to me it could only be a positive. But everyone has been left rather perplexed at the statement given by LNR head Paul Goze and so we don’t really know where they stand. It is easy to see why owners would be aggrieved if ERC was making less money for them than it should, and so it would seem that that would be enough of a grievance to withdraw from any competition under ERC control following next season.

 

Ireland

In one word, I am afraid for the future of the game here. Should the four Welsh regions leave the Rabo and go to the Aviva Premiership it would be a disaster for the Irish sides. I cannot see the stars such as Sean O’Brien, Jamie Heaslip, Rob Kearney, Cian Healy and Paul O’Connell who have tasted success with the province that gave them their contracts, wanting to stay. And why would they? The competition in France is guaranteed. There isn’t even guaranteed to be a Pro12 next season, let alone a European competition. And said European competition would be without the English and with French participation which was, in effect bought by the FFR. How motivated will they be to play against the best the Rabo can produce? The Top 14 is definitely the strongest league in Europe and week in week out these players would be playing against the very best. The same can’t be said about playing in the Pro 12. The money is better over there, the IRFU can’t dream of offering wages to players akin to what Toulon, Clermont, Toulouse and Racing Metro are paying. This mess is very scary.

 

Is there a way out?

As far as I can see the Heineken Cup is dead. Without English involvement it is diminished next season, of that there can be no doubt. The French teams have been bought by their Union, and only Clermont, Toulon and Toulouse really care about it anyway. I do not look forward to the product we will see next season.  

This is going to need someone to concede ground. The IRFU are unwilling to change the current structure because it works for them. The English teams feel like they will not be able to survive within the ERC and so they want to change. The Welsh, even with the ERC, do not feel they can survive with the amount of money the WRU is offering. The WRU doesn’t want to offer more to clubs it doesn’t control itself. The Scottish, Irish and Italians would face oblivion if the Welsh regions left the Pro 12 and the WRU couldn’t produce clubs with satisfactory squads. Something has to give. I am very interested in this possible UEFA style governing body to replace the ERC. If BT Sport offered PLR more money for the RCC than Sky are giving ERC for the Heineken and Amlin then there is something very wrong with ERC’s negotiating power. 

In my view, this can be solved in a couple of ways. If Sky offer ERC as much, or more money than BT Sport (although, why would it) then this would boost the money for the English and (possibly) the Welsh regions. That to me keeps everyone happy, that is, if the WRU would pass this money on. 

One alternative is more frightening from an Irish perspective. It would mean the Welsh regions getting into bed with the Aviva Premiership next season. The Heineken Cup being treated as a complete joke by the French and won easily by a Rabo team. The Rugby Champions Cup (or something similar) being established  with Anglo – Welsh and French participation, defiance of the ERC to the point that the PLR, LNR and RRW seize control of European rugby creating this pan European body like UEFA. This forcing the IRB’s hand to sanction such a tournament, leaving the Irish, Scots and Italians to join a competition where all the power lies with the French, English and Welsh. What a frightening prospect.

The one thing I think that needs to be done is for the WRU to give up trying to centralise their regions. While from an organisational point of view it is preferable to the WRU, its fans and sponsorship which keeps rugby going. Whats more attractive to a fan? Cardiff v Leicester or (Insert name of new region here) v Treviso? What’s easier to sell to a sponsor? They can’t sell it to their fans now, what makes them think that centrally contracting the current semi professionals in Welsh Rugby to teams fans already don’t like, is going to help?

I just hope this gets sorted out soon, I’m losing too much sleep thinking about it.