Zebre
15 Edoardo Padovani*
14 Lloyd Greeff
13 Giulio Bisegni
12 Tommaso Castello
11 Giovanbattista Venditti*
10 Carlo Canna
9 Guglielmo Palazzani
8 Andries Van Schalkwyk
7 Johan Meyer
6 Maxime Mbandà*
5 George Biagi (cap)
4 Joshua Furno*
3 Pietro Ceccarelli
2 Oliviero Fabiani
1 Andrea Lovotti*
Replacements :
16 Carlo Festuccia
17 Bruno Postiglioni
18 Dario Chistolini
19 Quintin Geldenhuys
20 Federico Ruzza*
21 Marcello Violi*
22 Tommaso Boni*
23 Kayle Van Zyl
Dragons v Zebre
Dragons
Hallam Amos, Adam Warren, Tyler Morgan, Sam Beard, Pat Howard, Nick MacLeod, Sarel Pretorius ; Thomas Davies, T Rhys Thomas, Brok Harris, Nick Crosswell, Rynard Landman, Lewis Evans, Nick Cudd, Ed Jackson
Rhys Buckley, Sam Hobbs, Lloyd Fairbrother, Matthew Screech, James Thomas, Charlie Davies, Angus O’Brien, Geraint Rhys Jones
Zebre
Kurt Baker, Lloyd Greef, Giulio Bisegni, Tommaso Boni, Gabriele di Giulio, Carlo Canna, Gugliemo Palazanni; Andrea De Marchi, Olivero Fabiani, Pietro Ceccarelli, Quintin Geldenhuys, George Biagi, Jacopo Sarto, Maxime Mbanda, Dries van Schalkwyk
Carlo Festuccia, Guillermo Roan, Dario Chistolini, Gideon Koeglenberg, Federico Ruzza, Carlo Engelbrecht, Matteo Pratichetti, Edoardo Padovani
Munster V Cardiff Blues
Munster
Andrew Conway, Darren Sweetnam, Dan Goggin, Rory Scannell, Ronan O’Mahony, Ian Keatley, Duncan Williams; James Cronin, Niall Scannell, John Ryan, Billy Holland, Dave Foley, Dave O’Callaghan, Tommy O’Donnell, Jack O’Donoghue
Duncan Casey, David Kilcoyne, Brian Scott, Donnacha Ryan, CJ Stander, Tomás O’Leary, Cian Bohane, Stephen Fitzgerald
Cardiff Blues
Dan Fish, Alex Cuthbert, Cory Allen, Rey Lee-lo, Tom James, Gareth Anscombe, Tomos Williams; Gethin Jenkins, Kristian Dacey, Taufa’ao Filise, George Earle, Maccauley Cook, Josh Navidi, Ellis Jenkins, Nick Williams
Matthew Rees, Rhys Gill, Scott Andrews, Josh Turnbull, Sam Warburton, Lloyd Williams, Steve Shingler, Matthew Morgan
Edinburgh v Scarlets
Edinburgh
Glenn Bryce, Mike Allen, Sasa Tofilau, Phil Burleigh, Tom Brown, Duncan Weir, Nathan Fowles; Rory Sutherland, Ross Ford, WP Nel, Ben Toolis, Grant Gilchrist, Jamie Ritchie, Magnus Bradbury
Stuart McInally, Allan Dell, Kevin Bryce, Fraser McKenzie, Hamish Watson, Sam Hidalgo-Clyne, Blair Kinghorn, Junior Rasolea
Scarlets
Liam Williams, Hadleigh Parkes, Jonathan Davies, Scott Williams, Steff Evans, Rhys Thomas, Aled Davies; Wyn Jones, Ken Owens, Werner Kruger, Jake Ball, David Bulbring, Aaron Shingler, James Davies, John Barclay
Rhys Elias, Luke Garrett, Peter Edwards, Tadhg Beirne, Josh Macleod, Gareh Davies, Daniel Jones, Aled Thomas
Glasgow v Leinster
Glasgow
Stuart Hogg, Leo Sarto, Alex Dunbar, Sam Johnston, Tommy Seymour, Peter Horne, Henry Pyrgos; Gordon Reid, Fraser Brown, Sila Puafisi, Tim Swinson, Jonny Gray, Rob Harley, Simone Favaro, Ryan Wilson
Corey Flynn, Alex Allan, Zander Fagerson, Tjiuee Uanivi, Lewis Wynne, Ali Price, Rory Clegg, Lee Jones
Leinster
Rob Kearney, Fergus McFadden, Garry Ringrose, Noel Reid, Dave Kearney, Joey Carberry, Luke McGrath; Cian Healy, James Tracy, Michael Bent, Mike McCarthy, Ross Molony, Dan Leavy, Josh van der Flier, Jordi Murphy
Brian Byrne, Peter Dooley, Tadhg Furlong, Mick Kearney, Dominic Ryan, Jamo Gibson-Park, Cathal Marsh, Zane Kirchner
Treviso v Ulster
Treviso
Jayden Hayward, Angelo Esposito, Tomasso Benvenuti, Luke McLean, Andrea Buondonno, Tommaso Allan, Giorgio Bronzini; Nicola Quaglio, Ornel Gega, Simone Pietro-Ferrari, Marco Fuser, Filo Paulo, Francesco Minto, Marcus Lazzaroni, Marco Barbini
Roberto Santamaria, Alberto De Marchi, Tiziano Pasquali, Filippo Gerosa, Dean Budd, Edoardo Gori, Ian McKinley, David Odiete
Ulster
Louis Ludik, Robert Lyttle, Luke Marshall, Stuart Olding, Jacob Stockdale, Brett Herron, Ruan Pienaar; Kyle McCall, Rob Herring, Rodney Ah You, Kieran Treadwell, Franco van der Merwe, Clive Ross, Sean Reidy, Roger Wilson
John Andrew, Andrew Warwick, Ross Kane, Peter Browne, Robbie Diack, Angus Lloyd, Stuart McCloskey, Darren Cave
Connacht v Ospreys
Connacht
Tiernan O’Halloran, Niyi Adeolokun, Eoin Griffin, Bundee Aki, Matt Healy, Jack Carty, Kieran Marmion; Ronan Loughney, Tom McCartney, Finlay Bealham, Ultan Dillane, Danny Qualter, Eoin McKeon, James Connolly, John Muldoon
Dave Heffernan, Dominic Robertson-McCoy, JP Cooney, Lewis Stevenson, Rory Moloney, Caolin Blade, Shane O’Leary, Danie Poolman
Ospreys
Dan Evans, Jeff Hassler, Ben John, Josh Matavesi, Eli Walker, Sam Davies, Rhys Webb; Nicky Smith, Sam Parry, Dmitri Arhip, Bradley Davies, Rory Thornton, Olly Cracknell, Justin Tipuric, Tyler Ardron
Scott Baldwin, Paul James, Ma’afu Fia, Lloyd Ashley, James King, Dan Baker, Tom Habberfield, Daffyd Howells
Leinster v Treviso – Friday 7:35pm
Leinster
Rob Kearney, Zane Kirchner, Garry Ringrose, Noel Reid, Fergus McFadden, Joey Carberry, Luke McGrath (c); Cian Healy, Bryan Byrne, Michael Bent, Ross Molony, Mike McCarthy, Dominic Ryan, Josh van der Flier, Dan Leavy
James Tracy, Andrew Porter, Mike Ross, Hayden Triggs, Jordi Murphy, Jamison Gibson-Park, Cathal Marsh, Rory O’Loughlin
Treviso
Jayden Hayward, Esposito, Benvenuti, Luke McClean, Buondonno, Tommy Allan, Bronzini; Nicola Quaglio, Ornel Gega, Simone Pietro Ferrari, Marco Fuser, Filo Paulo, Francesco Minto, Marco Lazzaroni, Alessandro Zanni
Roberto Santamaria, Alberto De Marchi, Tiziano Pasquali, Dean Budd, Marco Barbini, Edoardo Gori, Ian McKinley, David Odiete
Ulster v Newport Gwent Dragons – Friday 7:35pm
Ulster
Charles Piutau, Craig Gilroy, Stuart Olding, Stuart McCloskey, Jacob Stockdale, Brett Herron, Ruan Pienaar; Callum Black, Rob Herring, Ross Kane, Peter Browne, Franco van der Merwe, Clive Ross, Sean Reidy, Roger Wilson
John Andrew, Kyle McCall, Andrew Warwick, Alan O’Connor, Robbie Diack, Paul Marshall, Sam Windsor, Robert Lyttle
Newport Gwent Dragons
Carl Meyer, Adam Warren, Sam Beard, Jack Dixon, Pat Howard, Nick MacLeod, Sarel Pretorius; Sam Hobbs, Thomas Rhys Thomas, Craig Mitchell, Cory Hill, Rynard Landman, Ollie Griffiths, Nick Cudd, Ed Jackson
Rhys Buckley, Tom Davies, Lloyd Fairbrother, Nick Crosswell, Lewis Evans, Charlie Davies, Angus O’Brien, Tyler Morgan
Ospreys v Zebre – Friday 7:45
Ospreys
Dan Evans, Jeff Hassler, Ashley Beck, Josh Matavesi, Eli Walker, Sam Davies, Tom Habberfield (c); Nicky Smith, Sam Parry, Dmitri Arhip, Lloyd Ashley, Rory Thornton, Olly Cracknell, Justin Tipuric, Tyler Ardron
Hugh Gustafson, Paul James, Ma’afu Fia, Bradley Davies, Dan Baker, Rhys Webb, Ben John, Dafydd Howells
Zebre
Kurt Baker, Lloyd Greeff, Giulio Bisegni, Tommaso Castello, Gabriele Di Giulio, Edoardo Padovani, Guglielmo Palazzini; Andrea Lovotti, Tommaso D’Apice, Pietro Ceccarelli, Federico Ruzza, George Biagi, Jacopo Sarto, Maxime Mbanda, Andries van Schalkwyk
Carlo Festuccia, Andrea De Marchi, Dario Chistolini, Valerio Bernabo, Giovanni Pettinelli, Fabio Semenzato, Carlo Canna, Tommaso Boni
Scarlets v Munster – Saturday 3pm
Scarlets
Liam Williams, DTH van der Merwe, Scott Williams, Hadleigh Parkes, Steffan Evans, Rhys Patchell, Gareth Davies; Dylan Evans, Ken Owens (c), Werner Kruger, Jake Ball, Lewis Rawlins, Aaron Shingler, John Barclay, Josh McLeod
Ryan Elias, Wyn Jones, Peter Edwards, David Bulbring, Tadhg Beirne, Jonathan Evans, Dan Jones, Jonathan Davies
Munster
Simon Zebo, Darren Sweetnam, Dan Goggin, Rory Scannell, Ronan O’Mahony, Tyler Bleyendaal, Duncan Williams; James Cronin, Niall Scannell, John Ryan, Dave Foley, Billy Holland (c), Dave O’Callaghan, Tommy O’Donnell, Jack O’Donoghue
Kevin O’Byrne, David Kilcoyne, Brian Scott, Jean Kleyn, Donnacha Ryan, Tomas O’Leary, Ian Keatley, Cian Bohane
Connacht v Glasgow -Saturday 5:15pm
Connacht
Cian Kelleher, Niyi Adeolokun, Eoin Griffin, Bundee Aki, Matt Healy, Jack Carty, Caolin Blade; Denis Buckley, Tom McCartney, Finlay Bealham, Ultan Dillane, Danny Qualter, Eoin McKeon, Nepia Fox-Matamua, John Muldoon (c)
Dave Heffernan, Ronan Loughney, JP Cooney, Lewis Stevenson, James Connolly, Kieran Marmion, Shane O’Leary, Peter Robb
Glasgow
Stuart Hogg, Leonardo Sarto, Alex Dunbar, Sam Johnson, Tommy Seymour, Peter Horne, Henry Pyrgos (C); Gordon Reid, Pat McArthur, Zander Fagerson, Tim Swinson, Jonny Gray, Rob Harley, Simone Favaro, Ryan Wilson
Corey Flynn, Ryan Grant, Sia Fuafisi, Tjiuee Uanivi, Lewis Wynne, Ali Price, Rory Clegg, Sean Lamont
Cardiff Blues v Edinburgh – Saturday 7:35pm
Cardiff Blues
Dan Fish, Blaine Scully, Cory Allen, Rey Lee-Lo, Tom James, Steve Shingler, Tomos Williams; Rhys Gill, Kirby Myhill, Taufa’ao Filise, George Earle, Maccauley Cook, Josh Navidi, Ellis Jenkins(C), Nick Williams
Kristian Dacey, Gethin Jenkins, Scott Andrews, James Down, Cam Dolan, Lewis Jones, Gareth Anscombe, Matthew Morgan
Edinburgh
Glen Bryce, Rory Scholes, Sasa Tofilau, Solomani Rasolea, Tom Brown, Duncan Weir, Nathan Fowles; Rory Sutherland, Ross Ford, WP Nel, Fraser McKenzie, Grant Gilchrist, Jamie Ritchie, Hamish Watson, Nasi Manu
Stuart McInally, Jack Cosgrove, Simon Berghan, Ben Toolis, Magnus Bradbury, Sam Hidalgo Clyne, Blair Kinghorn, Chris Dean
20 into 8 won’t go, and this weekend the pool of potential qualifiers will grow even smaller. There has been some consternation on Twitter and assuredly there will be more should Leinster take a thumping on Saturday, about the fact that Leinster have started 7 new faces for their round 5 clash against Bath. Disregarding the argument that the team Leo Cullen has selected is one that can genuinely win (which I happen to believe they absolutely can), let’s have a look at the pools and see who are the likely winners of each pool and the likely 3 best runners up.
Pool 1.
All that is to be decided here is who will win and who will come second. Toulouse are out, a maximum 10 points from their games at Oyonnax and home against Saracens will give them 15 points. That will not be enough to progress. Sarries are through if they get one point from Ulster or Toulouse, and are probably through regardless. Ulster could do with a 5 at home against Oyonnax and a point against Sarries but 18 should be enough to see them through.
Prediction – Saracens 27 points, Ulster 19 points, Toulouse 10, Oyonnax 2 – 2 qualifiers.
POOL 2
There are three teams very much in the shake up here and Bordeaux Begles might still take points of some of the front runners. Clermont top the pool by 2 points (on 14) from Ospreys who are 2 points ahead of Exeter. Ospreys welcome Clermont to Swansea and then have to go to Sandy Park, while Exeter travel to Bordeaux before entertaining to the Ospreys. Clermont finish with a potentially tricky game against Bordeaux at home and so will look to have qualification virtually wrapped up tonight. 5 points against Ospreys will bring them to 19 and almost certainly put them through. If Ospreys can nick a point tonight at home, they will be well poised to set up a do or die clash against Exeter next weekend.
Exeter need to win against Bordeaux (with a slightly weakened team in France), and then beat Ospreys in Swansea to get them to 18 (or an unlikely maximum of 20) to get them into the quarter finals.) I would back Exeter’s pack to do the job on Ospreys (unfortunately) though they are risking a lot by weakening their team to go to Bordeaux, as Ulster nearly found out in Oyonnax last weekend. I would expect them to finish second to Clermont (on 22 or 23 points).
Prediction – Clermont 23 points, Exeter 18 points, Ospreys 13, Bordeaux 7 – 1 qualifier
Pool 3
Racing need 2 points from their last two games at home against Scarlets and then in Scotstoun against Warriors to put them through. I fancy them to take all 5 from tonight’s game and give themselves a shot at the number 1 seed in the quarter finals next weekend. The crucial game in this pool comes this weekend at Franklin’s Gardens between Saints and Warriors. Anything but a Warriors win puts them out. Anything but a Saints win puts them out. This is a knockout game. This could well be a pool with one qualifier with Warriors winning tonight but being beaten at home by Racing next weekend. With their recent run of form, as well as their injury problems, I am not expecting that to happen.
Prediction – Racing 26 points, Saints 19 points, Warriors 10 points, Scarlets 2 points – 2 qualifiers
Pool 4
Like pool 1 – all that is to be decided is the positions of 1 and 2. Leicester should put 4 tries on Treviso and win that game all but confirming them as pool winners before their trip to Paris. Munster entertain Stade desperately needing a win to salvage morale but Stade have two tough games to try and get a win and a losing bonus point to get them to 19. I expect a backlash from Munster, but without a scrum it’s hard to see them pulling this off this weekend. Stade have been very inconsistent this season, and terrible away from home. Last weekend was their best performance of their season – will that be a catalyst to kick start the year or will the inconsistency continue?
Prediction – Leicester 24 points, Stade 18 points, Munster 13 points, Treviso 0 points – 2 qualifiers.
Pool 5
In this pool, who knows really? Wasps are in pole position but travel to Mayol before welcoming a resurgent Leinster. Toulon have to go to the Rec after entertaining Bath. Bath play a youthful Leinster this weekend. With Leinster already out, it is likely that, insofar as possible, the side next weekend will also have a youthful complexion about it. I don’t see Bath scoring 4 tries against a side who has conceded just one in their last three games. Bath have also been in reasonably poor form until the Toulon game where they played dogged rugby and lost by three. Nothing short of 9 points will do it for Bath and I don’t see them bonus pointing either Leinster or Toulon in the next two weeks and so they are all but out. If Leinster can get some sort of hold in the scrum, and Tracy can keep the lineout ticking over, I actually think Leinster will put them out of their misery this weekend.
I do not see us winning in Coventry next week however, with Wasps battling for survival.
Prediction – Wasps 19 points, Toulon 17 points, Bath 13 points, Leinster 5 points. 1 qualifier.
The key points will be whether Ulster can get a point in Allianz Park, 4 tries at home against the pool whipping boys is a must. Pools 2 and 5 are a guess at best. Hard to know how Exeter will do first with a weakened side this weekend and then at home against the Ospreys. Hard to know whether Toulon will be able to overcome Wasps after plodding away in this group so far with Wasps destroying them in the reverse fixture. In pool 3 a bonus point for Saints in both games is not out of the question and would make them very comfortable. Stade against Munster is a very big game in the context of the quarter finals. A win for Munster would really put a cat amongst the pigeons.
I see it shaking up like so
1 Saracens
2 Racing
3 Leicester
4 Clermont
5 Wasps
6 Ulster
7 Saints
8 Stade
I started this article by saying Leinster versus Bath was not going to matter in terms of other teams making the quarter finals. I don’t think Bath will get the 9 points needed from their last 2 games to make it to 18, let alone the 10 points they would need to get to 19. It is a largely irrelevant fixture and one that makes perfect sense for Leinster to blood some youth. Particularly when 4 of those selected (Treacy, van der Flier, McGrath and Ringrose) would have a very strong case to be included in Leinster’s first 23, and possibly even first XV. If Bath come away from the RDS with a win I won’t be shocked, but I certainly don’t think they’ll thump us, and I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if we nicked a win.
Some comments in the wake of recent games prompts the question: Are Leinster Fans Spoilt? Continue reading
Just over a year ago, on the 1st of June 2014, the IRFU announced that former Brumbies player and General Manager of the High Performance Unit with the ARU, David Nucifora, would be joining as “Performance Director” of the IRFU. His responsibilities were to include “planning and evaluation, the elite player development pathway and succession planning and professional coach development and succession planning.” It was expected that this role would bring about a greater degree of fluidity of player movement between the provinces in order to maximise our still relatively small playing pool. To date (and admittedly it is early days for a role such as this) the progress on this front has been frustratingly stunted.
David Nucifora and IRFU Chief Executive Philip Browne
Mandatory Credit ©INPHO/Billy Stickland
There are two (maybe three) areas of the field in certain provinces where logjams have been created. The two most obvious are the Leinster back row and the Ulster centres. These areas will be explored below. A case could also be made for the inclusion of Leinster’s options at prop, although this is a slightly different case and will not be discussed here.
Leinster’s Back Row
For the past number of years Leinster have been churning out really quality back row players. The current back row of Rhys Ruddock/Jordi Murphy, Sean O’Brien and Jamie Heaslip could play in green and you would not feel particularly weak. They are four international standard players who have little, if anything left to prove at provincial level. The retirements of seasoned veteran (and pundit extraordinaire) Shane Jennings and interim club captain Kevin McLaughlin have not been harshly felt as they saw their roles in recent years diminish due to the presence of quality alternatives aforementioned and rising young talent Dominic Ryan. Last season also saw the emergence of one Jack Conan, who provides a genuine alternative for Leinster’s Ironman Captain, Heaslip. Behind these players were promising academy talents Josh van der Flier (who has been one of Leinster’s players of the season thus far) and highly touted Dan Leavy.
By my count that gives Leinster 6 international standard backrows (Conan and Ryan have been capped), and two talents who have already shown they are at the very least Pro 12 standard as of right now. The problem here is the amount of minutes, particularly for 25 year old Ryan. At this stage of his career the Gonzaga alumnus should be looking to push into the international reckoning, but he will struggle to warm the Leinster bench in any key games due to the presence of the also youthful Murphy, Ruddock and O’Brien. Ryan has flashed his potential on many occasions, but through a mixture of bad fortune with injury and an inability to get minutes due to the competition for places at Leinster, his development to date has not been as great as was probably expected.
Ulster’s Centres
If you had have said following the last Rugby World Cup in 2011 that Ulster would send two centres to the World Cup in 2015 with Ireland, you probably would have guessed at Nevin Spence and Darren Cave. Or Luke Marshall. Or maybe in your sagelike wisdom you saw Jared Payne as the long term solution to Brian O’Driscoll’s retirement. You certainly wouldn’t have known about Stuart McCloskey and Sam Arnold, both of whom look promising. And another name not yet mentioned is Stuart Olding. Following Spence’s tragic passing, we are left with Cave, Marshall, Payne, Olding, McCloskey and Sam Arnold – to fill 2 positions. 4 of those have been capped for Ireland. Marshall is 24, Olding is 22, McCloskey 23 and Sammy Arnold is barely out of nappies turning 20 next April.
While now may be a good time to revert back to 15, move Cave to his more natural 13 and give time to the others at 12, there are still too many centres to give enough minutes to all of them. As 4 are still very young, this problem will persist right the way through their development unless there is some movement, either within Ulster or within the IRFU. Movement to the outside channels seems unlikely given the presence of Tommy Bowe, Andrew Trimble, Craig Gilroy and the aforementioned Payne as well as the likes of Peter Nelson, Rory Scholes and Jacob Stockdale from the youth ranks. Ulster have enviable talent from 11 to 15 and it may be better used elsewhere.
Munster’s signings
After looking at backrow and centre options, it may be worth casting an eye over the signings Munster announced in the wake of the long term injury suffered by Peter O’Mahony and the career ending one sadly suffered by Felix Jones.
Munster have signed Pumas full back Lucas Amorosino and Brumbies back row Sean Doyle on 3 month contracts.
Short term Munster cover – Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino
Amorosino, it is fair to say, is a journeyman with Munster being his 5th club since 2009. He previously plied his trade at Leicester, Montpellier, Oyonnax and Cardiff Blues. At 29, he has 47 (soon to be 48) caps for Los Pumas, and has averaged 10 games a year over the last 6 seasons. He has not been particularly outstanding for Argentina at this World Cup and has been kept out of their admittedly excellent three quarter line of Juan Imhoff, Santi Cordero and Joaquin Tuculet. Nor was he particularly impressive in the colours of a struggling Cardiff Blues outfit last year. Short term Munster cover – Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino
Doyle, on the other hand, is a 26 year old Sydney born flanker, who Munster hope will solve their dearth of real breakdown dogs. He played 24 times for Ulster in his two seasons there, and made one appearance for the Brumbies in Super Rugby last year. He is a decent player but nothing extraordinary. It would not be disrespectful to either player to suggest that neither are top drawer, world class players. They are solid pros, one of whom is quite experienced, but little more.
Former Ulster Flanker Doyle joins as back row cover
In the wake of Argentina unceremoniously dumping Ireland out of the World Cup at the quarter final stage, drastic measures were suggested in some quarters for the betterment of the Irish cause. Giving Sean O’Brien, Jonny Sexton, Cian Healy and Conor Murray (some of Ireland’s few real world class operators) the opportunity to take a sabbatical to give their bodies the best possible chance of making it to Japan in 2019 in good shape was one of the mooted possibilities. At the centre of this was the underlying desire for the national team to push on to greater success, which is the end to which the provinces are a means. While ideas such as that were perhaps far-fetched, do these signings by Munster not smack of a lack of care to progress the national cause? Could one of Leinster’s young back rows have done a job in Munster for the next three months, or even for the season? With regards to Amorosino – Munster have Simon Zebo, Keith Earls, Andrew Conway, Stephen Fitzgerald, Gerhard van der Heever and Shane Monahan who can play in the back three. Dennis Hurley is experienced at fullback. While that would seem plenty, if Munster were not comfortable with those options, could one of the Ulster centres not have shifted down, just for three months or the season, to allow Munster the flexibility to move Earls or Hurley to 15?
Amorosino and Doyle will likely play in a lot of games that would have benefited McCloskey, Marshall, Leavy, van der Flier or Ryan. It is an over reliance on “experience” and not enough of a preference for potential. It is an inferiority complex that we have suffered from that a journeyman with experience playing in a different league must be better than our youngsters. The blame should not rest solely on Nucifora, as there must be some reluctance on behalf of the player (to play for his rivals) and the province (to strengthen their rivals), but seems that this is a large part of his job description that disappointingly remains to be fulfilled. For the good of Irish rugby, and for the elite player development pathway, surely it would be more beneficial for young Irish talent to gain experience of top flight rugby than for a similarly talented foreign player to take those opportunities? Obviously there should be a preference for the provinces to develop their own talent, but there have to be structures put in place that in times of need the provinces will be able to rely on each other for assistance.
Ulster host Leinster in Ravenhill tonight in what is a do-or-die match for the men in blue. Leinster, facing a 5 day turnaround after a grueling 100 minutes in Marseille, need to pick up at least four points and deny Ulster anything from this game if they are to stand a chance of making the top four and avoid a pool of death like Munster suffered this season. In fact, that won’t even be enough. Leinster currently sit 10 points adrift of Ulster with a maximum of 15 to play for. If Leinster lose tonight, and they are the underdogs, their season is over. Even if they win, they have to hope Ulster don’t pick up more than 4 or 5 points from their remaining two games (Munster at home and Glasgow away) to get in.
Making that task even harder is that Leinster will have to win away against Edinburgh (provided they stuff Treviso at home) to capitalise on what would be an Ulster bottle job. Neither of those tasks seem particularly daunting, except when you factor in that Leinster have won away from the RDS a grand total of three times this season, and one of those was in the Aviva against Bath! Leinster have to double their seasons’ tally of away wins in their last three games in order to have a miracle shot of making the top 4. It really is a mission impossible type scenario.
In sport it’s not over until the fat lady sings but she certainly is warming her vocal chords at the moment and more than likely will be in full flow by the 80th minute in Ravenhill, as much as we would like to be optimistic. Matt O’Connor has chosen to go away from his policy of changing half of his team every game for the first time in the season that it probably made sense to. If there is someone in the world that can explain to me why it makes sense to play Jimmy Gopperth in this game please step forward.
I haven’t been Gopperth’s biggest fan but I do see the merits in his game, and he has shown flashes that he has been restricted more by the gameplan than by skillset. Gopperth has the pace and offloading ability to play a game closer to the gain line than he has been this season, but he has allowed defences extra yards of relief by being conservative. Aside from that he has been worked into the ground clocking a mammoth 1900+ minutes thus far, likely going over the 2000 minute mark by the time the final whistle is blown tonight. He has been reasonably consistently ok, but when you remember that he is off to Coventry next season to play for Wasps, you have to wonder if this is an opportunity missed to give meaningful game time to guys like Ross Byrne or Cathal Marsh, who are likely to play a significant role for Leinster next season given Sexton and Madigan will unlikely be available before Christmas.
O’Connor has shown that as long as Leinster have even the minutest of chances to make the top 4, he’s going to go balls out trying to get there. So I ask, would a loss be the worst thing in the world tonight? If we are honest, this is an exercise in prolonging the inevitable, Leinster have only the faintest of prayers of making the playoffs and so it is suggested that if the final nail is put in the 2014/2015 season’s coffin tonight, at least we can give guys like Tadhg Furlong, Ross Molony, Luke McGrath and Cathal Marsh two games of Pro Rugby to end the season with at least a little more experience, albeit in dead rubber matches against two mediocre at best opponents.
I certainly won’t be cheering for a loss tonight, but if we look at it from a game time perspective, it isn’t the worst result in the world. #COYBIB
This Saturday, Leinster travel to the Ricoh arena in Coventry to play London Wasps in a pool decider in the Heineken European Champions Cup. Pool decider might be enough to call this game important, but if we look closer at it, there is a lot more to play for than who progresses from Pool 2.
Leinster beat Wasps in round 1 in November in the RDS 25-20, scoring 3 tries to Wasps 2 in a game where they ultimately did just enough to get away with it. Wasps did not show up in the second half of that game and Leinster, despite playing indifferently, merited their win.
Wasps points scored since that game 16, 29, 43, 71, 15, 16, 32, 44, 48, 30, 41, 26, 23.
While Leinster may have hit 50 points against a disinterested, disorganised and dispirited Castres outfit last weekend, the amount of 30+ games for Wasps is a serious eye opener. While in most of those games they have had to score so much to win games, last weekend’s 3-23 demolition of Harlequins, in a do-or-die performance at the Stoop will have opened an eye. Conceding just 3 points to a team which had Chris Robshaw, Nick Easter, Danny Care, Marland Yarde and Mike Brown, especially when down to 14 men for spells of the game is a frightening prospect for Leinster fans. We expect them to be able to score from anywhere with the likes of Joe Simpson, Alapati Leuia, Elliot Daly, Christian Wade, Ashley Johnson and Nathan Hughes in their ranks. Equally we expected defence to be optional. This appears not to be so with Wasps in their current form, and as such Leinster are going to have to hit a very high standard.
I HATE basing the future of players or coaches off of one performance, and yet I am about to do so. I think it is fair comment to describe this game as the acid-test for Matt O’Connor’s regime in Leinster. As far as I am aware (and I am open to correction) O’Connor’s 3rd year is optional, and with the mixed results/performances so far this season it is not beyond the realms of possibility that even a league victory would not salvage a pointless loss and failure to qualify from the pool stages in this game.
Before the Ospreys game in December, I wrote about how crucial the proceeding 6 games were for Leinster, and while their results came in roughly in line with what I said was required, the wins against Connacht and understrength Ospreys and Ulster sides were punctuated by poor performances in Thomond, in the Aviva and in the Stoop. Leinster are unbeaten in the New Year, beating Ulster comfortably before making hard work of a bonus point in Cardiff and then taking Castres to the cleaners. The problem with those results is that they come against sides weakened by injury, poor form or, in Cardiff’s case, a stupid decision by a senior member of the team. The game in Coventry is a test in the sense that both teams have everything at stake, a win for either side will see them through, though Leinster have the slight comfort that scoring 4 tries or coming within 7 will likely (certainly?) be enough for qualification.
And so the chips are down, and Leinster need to go away from the D4tress (can that die please? I hate it) and win or at least perform well in a crucial game for both sides. If O’Connor can’t engineer that, with what is almost his first strength side, it might be better for both sides if they parted ways in the offseason. If he can, it may well be the result which turns the Leinster quarter (myself admittedly included) who have called for his head at times both this and last season. If he can engineer an impressive performance and win a group everyone expected Leinster to win, guaranteeing a home quarter final, he may well live to fight another season. It is crucial for Leinster, if they want to keep playing in this competition and if the players want to continue playing for the coach they have waxed lyrical about of late, and if said coach wants to extend his time in the province, that they perform well and beat Wasps this weekend.
League performance
There has been a lot spouted in recent weeks regarding the performance of the Pro12 in the Euro competition. A lot regarding doomsday in questioning whether a team from the Pro12 will ever win the European Competition again. There is some merit to this, the spending power of Toulon, Clermont, Toulouse, Bath, Saracens and Northampton far surpasses anything that the teams in the Pro12 can currently imagine. It is all very reactionary however, as we have seen money trumped before. When Munster got to European finals in 2000 and 2002 they were not outspending the English and French teams. Even when they won it in 06 and 08 they were at VERY best competing on a level playing field, though even that would surprise me. It is unfair to take this tournament out of context. Are the English and French teams better than the Pro12 teams at the moment? By and large, absolutely. However no one would dare argue this Leinster team would come close to beating the 09/11/12 vintage, or Munster their cup winning sides of 06/08. These teams are merely not as good as their predecessors and that is not entirely, or even mostly, down to money. It is important for the Pro12 that Leinster win on Saturday and secure a Pro12 representative in the last 8. And who knows, with Healy and SOB back, they may go on and win it!
#LeinsterByLoads #COYBIB
Look O'Donoghues Talking 