20 into 8 won’t go, and this weekend the pool of potential qualifiers will grow even smaller. There has been some consternation on Twitter and assuredly there will be more should Leinster take a thumping on Saturday, about the fact that Leinster have started 7 new faces for their round 5 clash against Bath. Disregarding the argument that the team Leo Cullen has selected is one that can genuinely win (which I happen to believe they absolutely can), let’s have a look at the pools and see who are the likely winners of each pool and the likely 3 best runners up.
Pool 1.
All that is to be decided here is who will win and who will come second. Toulouse are out, a maximum 10 points from their games at Oyonnax and home against Saracens will give them 15 points. That will not be enough to progress. Sarries are through if they get one point from Ulster or Toulouse, and are probably through regardless. Ulster could do with a 5 at home against Oyonnax and a point against Sarries but 18 should be enough to see them through.
Prediction – Saracens 27 points, Ulster 19 points, Toulouse 10, Oyonnax 2 – 2 qualifiers.
POOL 2
There are three teams very much in the shake up here and Bordeaux Begles might still take points of some of the front runners. Clermont top the pool by 2 points (on 14) from Ospreys who are 2 points ahead of Exeter. Ospreys welcome Clermont to Swansea and then have to go to Sandy Park, while Exeter travel to Bordeaux before entertaining to the Ospreys. Clermont finish with a potentially tricky game against Bordeaux at home and so will look to have qualification virtually wrapped up tonight. 5 points against Ospreys will bring them to 19 and almost certainly put them through. If Ospreys can nick a point tonight at home, they will be well poised to set up a do or die clash against Exeter next weekend.
Exeter need to win against Bordeaux (with a slightly weakened team in France), and then beat Ospreys in Swansea to get them to 18 (or an unlikely maximum of 20) to get them into the quarter finals.) I would back Exeter’s pack to do the job on Ospreys (unfortunately) though they are risking a lot by weakening their team to go to Bordeaux, as Ulster nearly found out in Oyonnax last weekend. I would expect them to finish second to Clermont (on 22 or 23 points).
Prediction – Clermont 23 points, Exeter 18 points, Ospreys 13, Bordeaux 7 – 1 qualifier
Pool 3
Racing need 2 points from their last two games at home against Scarlets and then in Scotstoun against Warriors to put them through. I fancy them to take all 5 from tonight’s game and give themselves a shot at the number 1 seed in the quarter finals next weekend. The crucial game in this pool comes this weekend at Franklin’s Gardens between Saints and Warriors. Anything but a Warriors win puts them out. Anything but a Saints win puts them out. This is a knockout game. This could well be a pool with one qualifier with Warriors winning tonight but being beaten at home by Racing next weekend. With their recent run of form, as well as their injury problems, I am not expecting that to happen.
Prediction – Racing 26 points, Saints 19 points, Warriors 10 points, Scarlets 2 points – 2 qualifiers
Pool 4
Like pool 1 – all that is to be decided is the positions of 1 and 2. Leicester should put 4 tries on Treviso and win that game all but confirming them as pool winners before their trip to Paris. Munster entertain Stade desperately needing a win to salvage morale but Stade have two tough games to try and get a win and a losing bonus point to get them to 19. I expect a backlash from Munster, but without a scrum it’s hard to see them pulling this off this weekend. Stade have been very inconsistent this season, and terrible away from home. Last weekend was their best performance of their season – will that be a catalyst to kick start the year or will the inconsistency continue?
Prediction – Leicester 24 points, Stade 18 points, Munster 13 points, Treviso 0 points – 2 qualifiers.
Pool 5
In this pool, who knows really? Wasps are in pole position but travel to Mayol before welcoming a resurgent Leinster. Toulon have to go to the Rec after entertaining Bath. Bath play a youthful Leinster this weekend. With Leinster already out, it is likely that, insofar as possible, the side next weekend will also have a youthful complexion about it. I don’t see Bath scoring 4 tries against a side who has conceded just one in their last three games. Bath have also been in reasonably poor form until the Toulon game where they played dogged rugby and lost by three. Nothing short of 9 points will do it for Bath and I don’t see them bonus pointing either Leinster or Toulon in the next two weeks and so they are all but out. If Leinster can get some sort of hold in the scrum, and Tracy can keep the lineout ticking over, I actually think Leinster will put them out of their misery this weekend.
I do not see us winning in Coventry next week however, with Wasps battling for survival.
Prediction – Wasps 19 points, Toulon 17 points, Bath 13 points, Leinster 5 points. 1 qualifier.
The key points will be whether Ulster can get a point in Allianz Park, 4 tries at home against the pool whipping boys is a must. Pools 2 and 5 are a guess at best. Hard to know how Exeter will do first with a weakened side this weekend and then at home against the Ospreys. Hard to know whether Toulon will be able to overcome Wasps after plodding away in this group so far with Wasps destroying them in the reverse fixture. In pool 3 a bonus point for Saints in both games is not out of the question and would make them very comfortable. Stade against Munster is a very big game in the context of the quarter finals. A win for Munster would really put a cat amongst the pigeons.
I see it shaking up like so
1 Saracens
2 Racing
3 Leicester
4 Clermont
5 Wasps
6 Ulster
7 Saints
8 Stade
I started this article by saying Leinster versus Bath was not going to matter in terms of other teams making the quarter finals. I don’t think Bath will get the 9 points needed from their last 2 games to make it to 18, let alone the 10 points they would need to get to 19. It is a largely irrelevant fixture and one that makes perfect sense for Leinster to blood some youth. Particularly when 4 of those selected (Treacy, van der Flier, McGrath and Ringrose) would have a very strong case to be included in Leinster’s first 23, and possibly even first XV. If Bath come away from the RDS with a win I won’t be shocked, but I certainly don’t think they’ll thump us, and I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if we nicked a win.
Look O'Donoghues Talking 